Avoiding failure is often better than shooting at goals. I have written about this in chess, but I think it also applies to other domains. One method to do this is the inversion technique.

For example: “I want to be fitter in 2024”.

A fine goal, but vague, for one can easily be distracted by protein powder, gym locations, what shoes to buy. Focusing on everything but the actual exercising. Instead, ask yourself, how would you theoretically become the most unfit person of yourself?

1. Never sleep
2. Eat lots of junk food
3. Never exercise
4. Be around lazy people

Inversing this gives us a good starting point:

1. Get quality sleep
2. Eat clean
3. Exercise
4. Find a community that prioritises health

Or an example closer to home: “I want to be a better writer in 2024”.

How would you ensure you become a worse writer in 2024?

1. Never write
2. Never read
3. Write about dull things

The inversion technique gives us some simple starting points:

1. Write
2. Read
3. Write about things that interest you

I’d say these are fine starting points.

Before assessing complex solutions, look at avoiding disaster.