These days, it seems like every conversation involves the recent coronavirus outbreak and its ramifications on society. Whether it’s the toilet paper shortages, job losses or the shutting down of schools and sporting events, a single word comes to mind when reflecting on the last few weeks: chaos. In light of this, I’ve decided to do some research on what’s been happening and reflect on some of the thoughts COVID-19 has brought on over the last few weeks.

Background

• Coronaviruses are a family of viruses causing diseases with variable virulence, ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). SERS and MERS outbreaks have occurred in the past.
• December 2019: Reports of a new coronavirus outbreak emerge in Wuhan, China. This virus has been named SARS-CoV-2, with the disease it causes called Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). Compared to SARS or MERS, COVID-19 spreads more efficiently between people to people but has a lower mortality rate.
• March 11: The World Health Organisation (WHO) declares COVID-19 a pandemic.
• March 12: The Australian Federal Government unveils its $17.6 billion stimulus package, targeting mostly businesses and welfare recipients. Italy goes into lockdown.
• March 16: The Australian Federal Government places a ban on non-essential gatherings of more than 500 people to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Events such as the Australian Grand Prix and spectators for cricket games are cancelled.

Present (as of March 22)

• In Australia, there are currently 1,072 cases reported, though this number is thought to be underreported and will almost certainly rise.
• Worldwide, 307,652 cases have been reported across 188 countries and territories. Of these, 95,797 have recovered and 13,051 have died – a mortality rate of around 4.2%. The top 3 affected countries are China, Italy and Spain.
  • Live statistics can be found here.
• While most people recover from the disease naturally, the mortality rate increases for the elderly, the immunocompromised and those with underlying illnesses such as diabetes, heart disease or cancer.
• Many countries across the world have put restrictions on social gatherings in order to ‘flatten the curve’, preventing an overwhelm of the healthcare system and to provide time for research to develop treatments. The mathematical models assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mortality can be found here.
• The Victorian State Government has announced shutdown of all non-essential activity across Victoria, commencing this coming Tuesday (March 24).

Future

• There is currently no well-established estimate as to when COVID-19 will peak or end, though concerns that the outbreak will coincide with flu season in August have led to the push of the influenza vaccine.
• The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that COVID-19 could claim up to 24.7 million jobs worldwide.
• Trials for a COVID-19 treatment are currently underway in labs globally, though a vaccine will take at least an year to develop, given the time required for pre-clinical development, phase 1 clinical trials and upscaling.  
• With SARS-CoV-2 accumulating 1 to 2 mutations per month, researchers are drawing up phylogenic trees to put together distinct lineages and gauge its spread. It’s currently unclear how exactly these mutations affect the behaviour of the virus.

3 Thoughts

1. Variable Responses

How does one respond when a safe and predictable week suddenly gets turned on its head due to a virus outbreak that’s taking over the world? The spectrum of responses is amazing, from people simply enjoying the show to others fighting over toilet paper. While it’s understandable that there would be a dramatic response to the pandemic, it’s unfortunate to see unhelpful attitudes such as xenophobia rearing their heads, only adding fire to the chaos.

Perhaps this period can illustrate where one’s priorities lie. For those who are concerned about their own wellbeing, xenophobia isn’t a surprising reaction – this is the perhaps one of the most unstabilising events of the last century and being weary of others is normal. But for those whose concern involves the wellbeing of others, a rare and selfless nature can emerge in a time where looking out for one’s self is the norm.

I’ve noticed it’s difficult to find posts regarding the few benefits COVID-19 has brought about. The media seems to focus exceedingly on new policies, new restrictions and new death toll updates. Very few seem to report that greenhouse gases are at an all-time low. That skies in Wuhan are blue and clear. That the sound of birds, previously deafened by the noise of city noise, now sing out through the silence. That while this time can seem incredibly isolating, it has the possibility to be wholly uniting, as people become increasingly aware of their actions on others. If this translates to more empathy and understanding of others in the future, I think that’s something we can all rejoice about.

2. Default Habits

Crisis doesn’t change people; it reveals them.

Eric Walters

If there’s one thing that COVID-19 helps reveal, it’s our default habits. When the structures and expectations that set up a week collapse, do we still maintain our usual habits and routines or do we turn to other activities, ones which seem more enjoyable and meaningful than our usual work?

Personally, I noticed that my motivations for studying drop immensely when lectures and tutorials aren’t in person. There’s something about being physically present in a class or lecture hall that creates a sense of accountability – something that makes me think, ‘hmm, maybe I should be as studious as the rest of my cohort…’ And that gets me over the line to study. Perhaps this disinterest in studying is a warning sign that my motivations for medicine aren’t as strong as I once imagined, but that’s a thought for another time.

3. Physical vs Social Isolation

I sometimes fear that maintaining physical health through social isolation neglects another piece of wellbeing: mental health. I identify as fairly introverted, but the notion of socially isolating myself for a few weeks doesn’t sound too appealing. Without social interaction, dangerous states such as loneliness can seep in and easily lead to other, more destructive thoughts.

For the majority of people who are more extraverted than myself, I pray people will still interact with and support others during these isolating times. Honestly, ‘social isolation’ should be renamed ‘physical isolation’, since it’s the only the physical aspect of meeting which is dangerous, not the social. Indeed, to fully socially isolate from others would be dangerous, perhaps more so than the virus itself.

As the pandemic situation progresses, only God knows what will happen to us all. But if we remember to add some empathy, some awareness and some kindness each day, I trust we can all get through this together in one piece.